The Wall Street Journal recently compared statistics on expected home foreclosures. The number of loans, securities and distressed inventory is quite high compared to before the recession. However, there seems to be no set consensus of the total number of homes that are at risk of foreclosure.
There are about 4 million home loans throughout the nation that are over 90 days delinquent, a report from LPS Applied Analytics showed. The number of new loans entering into this category is said to be slowing, though. The stricter legal process for banks seeking foreclosure has slowed the number of homes that are actually being sold to new owners and this number has remained stable according to the latest report from LPS.
A bond manager of Amherst Securities said that there are 10.3 million home loans that are "distressed sales over time." Amherst breaks this number up into five separate categories to show the risk of each of the loans, and considers loans over 60 days delinquent to be at risk while most firms consider 90 days delinquent to be the starting point.
The National Association of Realtors uses several different firms to determine the size of distressed inventory; however, each firm uses different categories to determine the distressed inventory. This makes it difficult to see the actual number of home foreclosure filings, which is never consistent.
When analyzing the state of the housing market, it comes down to the local level, experts say. If there is an abundance of vacant buildings at the local level, the prices of the housing market will continue to be cumbersome. If this is the case, Florida still has a long way to go until recovery is reached.
Source: The Wall Street Journal, "How Many Homes Are in Trouble?" Robbie Whelan, Nov. 11, 2011.